Impacts of Water and Export Market Restrictions on Palestinian Agriculture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Butterfield*, Jad Isaac**, Atif Kubursi* and Steven Spencer*

 

* McMaster University and Econometric Research Limited

** Applied Research Institute of Jerusalem (ARIJ)

 

January 2000

 

Financial support from the International Development Research Center (IDRC) is gratefully acknowledged

 

 

 


Introduction

 

Agriculture remains a dominant sector of the Palestinian economy. It represents a major component of the economy’s GDP, and employs a large fraction of the population. Furthermore, the agricultural sector is a major earner of foreign exchange and supplies the basic needs of the majority of the local population. In times of difficulty, the agricultural sector has acted as a buffer that absorbs large scores of unemployed people who lost their jobs in Israel or other local sectors of the economy.

 

Palestinian agriculture is constrained by available land and water, as well as access to markets. These constraints have been the object of political conflict, as Israeli authorities have limited available land, water and markets. It is widely recognized that resolution of these conflicts is essential to the establishment of peace in the region (Dinar and Wolf 1994a; Dinar and Wolf 1994b; Berck and Lipow 1994; Wolf 1993; Wolf and Ross 1992; and Yaron 1994). Since Palestinian agriculture is a major potential user of land and water, it is important to establish its needs for these resources. Typically, models for the allocation of water in the region have used a simple derived demand function for water, in which the elasticity of demand is the key parameter (Bogess, Lacewell and Zilberman 1993 and Bryant, Mjelde and Lacewell 1993). In this paper, a detailed linear programming model is used to explore the limitations imposed by these constraints and to spell out the potential for Palestinian agriculture.

 

Experiments are conducted in which existing constraints on the amount of available irrigation water are relaxed. In addition, other experiments explore the impacts of restrictions on export markets. Although there are no experiments in which the land constraints are relaxed, the shadow prices on these constraints in the experiments provide an indication of their severity.

 

Constraints on Agricultural Production

 

The loss of large stretches of agricultural land, after 1967, due to land confiscation and closures, and limitations on water supply and product markets, has led to a substantial decline in the production of this sector.

 

In 1967, Palestinian agricultural production was almost identical to Israel's: tomatoes, cucumbers and melons were roughly half of Israel's crop; plums and grape production were equal to Israel's; and Palestinian production of olives, dates and almonds was higher. At that time, the West Bank exported 80% of the entire vegetable crop it produced, and 45% of total fruit production (Hazboun, S., 1986).

 

The agricultural sector was hit hard after Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Thereafter the sector’s contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Palestinian Occupied Territories declined. Between 1968/1970 and 1983/1985 the percentage of agricultural contribution to the overall GDP in the West Bank fell from 37.4-53.5% to 18.5-25.4% (UNCTAD, 1990). The labour force employed in this sector has also declined. Between 1969 and 1985, the agricultural labour force, as a percentage of the total labour force, fell from 46 to 27.4% (Kahan, D., 1987).

 

There has been a continuous decline in the Palestinian cultivated areas in the West Bank since 1967. In 1965, before the Israeli occupation, the actual cultivated area was estimated at 2,435 km2 (Al-'Aloul, K., 1987). The total area fell to 1,951 km2 in 1980. In 1985, the cultivated area reached 1,735 km2, and in 1989, it was 1,706 km2 (UNCTAD, 1990). The average of actual cultivated land in the West Bank, between 1980 and 1994 was 1,707 km2, a reduction by 30% of the area cultivated in 1965. 

 

Marketing of farm products and their distribution to local and external markets is one of the major obstacles facing Palestinian farmers. Throughout the occupation years, selling Palestinian agricultural products within Israel requires special permits to be issued by the Israeli authorities. Transporting products from north to south in the West Bank has become difficult as well, especially after Israel enforced a closure on East Jerusalem, the main road connecting northern with southern parts of the West Bank. Movement of agricultural products between the West Bank and Gaza Strip is also subject to Israeli control.

 

The Gulf War in 1991 has also severely affected Palestinian agriculture, since the bulk of exports were previously sent to Arab Gulf countries. Palestinian exports to the Gulf States had previously accounted for approximately $25.4 million per year. As a result of the war, Palestinian exports fell by 14%.

 

Israel has restricted Palestinian water usage and exploited Palestinian water resources after occupation. Presently, more than 85% of the Palestinian water from the West Bank aquifers is taken by Israel, accounting for 25.3% of Israel’s water needs. Palestinians are also denied their right to utilize water resources from the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers, to which both Israel and Palestine are riparians. West Bank farmers historically used the waters of the Jordan River to irrigate their fields, but this source has become quite polluted as Israel is diverting saline water flows from around Lake Tiberias into the lower Jordan. Moreover, Israeli diversions from Lake Tiberias into the National Water Carrier have reduced the flow considerably, leaving Palestinians downstream with little water of low quality.

 

In Gaza, the coastal aquifer serves as its main water resource. Other Gazan water sources, such as runoff from the Hebron hills, have been diverted for Israeli purposes. The Gaza strip, which housed only 50,000 people before 1948 is now one of the most densely populated regions in the world. This is the result of the high levels of forced immigration following the 1948 and 1967 conflicts, and the high rate of natural population increase. Gaza’s coastal aquifer is now suffering from severe saltwater intrusion.

 

With regard to total water consumption, an Israeli uses 1959 cubic meters per year (CM/year), compared to an average Palestinian use of 238 CM/year.

 

Israeli restrictions have drastically limited the irrigation of Palestinian land so that today only 6% of the West Bank land cultivated by Palestinians is under irrigation, the same proportion as in 1967. By contrast, about 70% of the area cultivated by Jewish settlers is irrigated.

 

 

Agricultural Production

 

Presently, Palestine is divided into two geographic areas: the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. Agriculture is the largest sector of the Palestinian economy, generating over 22% of the Gross Domestic Product of the West Bank and Gaza and providing employment to over 15% of the population.

 

The Palestinian agricultural sector shares the combined characteristics of both intensive irrigated farming primarily in the Gaza Strip, the Jordan Valley and the Northern districts of the West Bank, as well as the extensive rain-fed farming which is dominant in the West Bank highlands. Despite the small size of the West Bank and Gaza, these areas enjoy a diversity of climatic regions, which makes it possible to grow almost anything, all year round.

 

Agriculture in Palestine is divided into rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (Figure 1). Rain-fed cultivation forms the largest cultivated area, using 92.7-95.8% of the total cultivated land. Annual production is generally affected by the dominant climatic conditions, reflecting substantial variation between the various years.

 

Cultivation of fruit trees is the major sector of plant production in Palestine. Nearly 97.3% of the fruit trees are cultivated under rain-fed conditions, while the remaining 2.7% are irrigated. Although irrigated fruit trees occupy limited areas, they contribute approximately 37% to the total fruit tree production (Agricultural Department of the West Bank, 1993-1994).

 

Olive trees, grapevines, almonds, figs and citrus are the major types of fruit trees planted in Palestine. They occupy 90% of the total fruit tree area and produce 79% of total fruit production. Olive trees are the prominent fruit trees throughout Palestine, covering about 72% of areas devoted to fruit trees and contributing about 30% of the total fruit production. Irrigated olive orchards are mainly located in the Jordan Valley and Tulkarm district. The area of unproductive olive orchards measures 4,272 hectares and makes up approximately 4% of the total fruit tree area.

 

Grapevines are the second major fruit crops in the West Bank, with a total area of approximately 7,600 hectares and annual production of 43,000 tonnes in 1994. Approximately 68% of the total cultivated area of vineyards is found in the Hebron district. Almond trees occupy the third largest area among cultivated fruit trees, forming 7.1% of the fruit tree area and contributing 2.4% to the fruit production.

 

 

Figure 1: Total Cultivated Area and Production of Different Cropping Patterns

in the West Bank for the 1994 Growing Season

 

 

 

 

The area of field crops and forages has significantly decreased from 85,000 hectares in 1966 to approximately 46,000 hectares in 1994. This decline reflects the major reduction of field crops in the West Bank.

 

The total area of field crops varies from one year to another. During the last fifteen years, the largest area of field crops was in 1990, with 56,492 hectares, while the smallest was in 1984, with 43,881 hectares. This indicates that there is a potential for at least additional 12,611.5 hectares of field crops that could be planted to produce approximately 17 thousand tonnes of different types of field crops (Rural Research Center, 1980-1990; Haddadin, 1993).

 

The total cultivated area under field crops was estimated at 46,106.1 hectares in 1994. The majority of this area (approximately 98.4%) was cultivated under rain-fed conditions while only 1.6% was irrigated. Total field crop production was 48,662.5 tonnes for the same year, of which irrigated field crops contributed 10.1%,  (Agricultural Department of the West Bank, 1993-1994).

 

The potential for field crop development in the West Bank is greatly limited by productivity, size of cultivated areas and agro-climatologic factors. The distribution of rainfall, prevailing temperatures, and the occurrence of Khamaseen winds are the main factors influencing the distribution of field crops and annual productivity. These factors also influence farmers’ decisions on the type of crop and time of planting.

 

In the 1994-growing season, the total area of vegetable crops was approximately 16,000 hectares with a total production of 212,000 tonnes. The production of vegetable crops is higher than that of fruit trees or field crops. Also, the areas of rain-fed vegetables are characterized by fertile soils and good average rainfall (Agricultural Departments in the West Bank, 1993-1994).

 

More than 30 different vegetable crops are planted in Palestine. This richness in crop diversity combined with the variety of possible panting dates greatly improves the production of this sector.

 

Irrigated vegetables make about 42% of the vegetable area. Different irrigation systems used in the cultivation of vegetables in Palestine, namely open irrigated fields, irrigation under low plastic tunnels, under high plastic tunnels, and under plastic houses.

 

Although rain-fed vegetables account for the largest area of the total planted vegetables (approximately 59%), they contribute only 19% to total vegetable production. The largest area of rain-fed vegetables is found in Jenin district, followed by Tulkarm, Hebron, Ramallah, Nablus, and Bethlehem.

 

Around 20 different vegetable crops are planted under rain-fed conditions in the West Bank. The most widespread are dry onions, tomatoes, okra, snake cucumber, squash, cauliflower, and potatoes. Productivity of rain-fed vegetables varies from year to year, depending on many conditions. The main factors controlling productivity and the length of the farming season are rainfall and the quantity of last effective rainfall, soil moisture content, soil preparation, and temperature; especially during the emergence, flowering, and fruit setting stages of plant growth.

 

The current total area of irrigated land in the West Bank is 101,615 dunums and the total amount of water used for irrigation is 92.94 Million Cubic Meters (MCM). Table 1 shows the total area and production for different major plant types in the West Bank in the year 1996.

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Total Area and Production for Different Major Types Planted in the West Bank in 1996

 

Type

Area (1000 dunums)

Production

(1000 tonnes)

Field crops

375.048

49.719

Forage crops

66.369

18.056

Vegetable crops

145.457

256.405

Citrus

18.836

55.977

Unproductive Olive trees

22.545

-------

Productive Olives

785.428

123.661

Other fruit trees

214.280

107.046

Total

1,627.963

610.864

 

 

Almost 92.7% of the total irrigated areas in the West Bank are concentrated in the two agro-ecological areas, the semi-coastal region and the Jordan Valley. Vegetables constitute 67% of the total irrigated areas in the West Bank. About 65.3% of the vegetables are grown under open fields, 15.8% under low plastic tunnels, 7.5% under high plastic tunnels and 11.4% under plastic houses. Fruit trees form about 26.5% of the total irrigated lands in the West Bank, while field crops constitute 6.5%.

 

Agriculture in the South of the West Bank (Bethlehem and Hebron) is mainly rain-fed. There are 375,726 dunums of agricultural land, of which only 1807 dunums are irrigated. Hence, its contribution to the total irrigated agriculture in the West Bank is 1.8%. As for agricultural water use, the South consumes 0.54 MCM for irrigation, which is 0.6% of the West Bank total.

 

The North of the West Bank (Ramallah, Jenin, Tulkarm and part of Nablus) is quite varied in the types of crops produced. It has good fertile soil, suitable climate, fair amounts of irrigation water and relatively high annual rainfall. All of these factors contributed to prosperous rain-fed farming and irrigated agriculture in the North. There are 1,262,637 dunums of agricultural land, of which 56,088 dunums is irrigated farmland. This makes the North’s contribution to the total irrigated agriculture in the West Bank 55.2%. Similarly, the North uses 36.83 MCM for irrigation, which is 39.6% of the total West Bank irrigation water.

 

The Jordan Valley, including Jericho and part of Nablus, has very hot weather and virtually no rain. As a result, there is no rain-fed agriculture in the Jordan Valley and all the farming is based on irrigated cultivation. Thus, all of the 43,700 dunums of agricultural land is irrigated. The Jordan Valley’s contribution to the total irrigated agriculture in the West Bank is 43%. As for agricultural water, 55.57 MCM are used on irrigation, which makes up 59.8% of the total irrigation water in the West Bank.

 

In the Gaza Strip, the exploitation level of resources exceeds the carrying capacity of the environment. This is especially true for the water and land resources. Agricultural expansion in the Gaza Strip seems to have reached its limits. Almost all cultivated land is now under exploitation. Due to economic pressure the last remaining spots of dunes are rapidly being leveled and excavated in order to start intensive horticulture. This process is further accelerated by the loss of agricultural land in sand dune areas to urban expansion. There are 178,186 dunums of agricultural land, representing close to 50% of the total area of the Gaza Strip. Of the total, 109,146 dunums are irrigated and 69,040 dunums are rain-fed. Thus irrigated farming makes up 61% of the total agricultural area in the Gaza Strip.  Table 2 shows the total area and production for different plant types in the Gaza Strip in the year 1996.

 

 

 

Table 2: Total Area and Production for Different Planted Crops in the Gaza Strip in 1996

 

Type

Area (1000 dunums)

Production (1000 tonnes)

Vegetable crops

62.217

260.513

Citrus

43.574

97.192

Other fruit trees

40.450

27.530

Field crops and Forage

33.700

6.500

Total

179.941

385.2

 

 

During the period 1967 through 1995, due to the absence of a national government in Palestine, a mix of economic and political considerations shaped Palestinian agricultural practices. In irrigated agriculture, economic issues forced Palestinians to shift from fruit trees to high cash value crops such as vegetables, and more recently flowers. For instance, the areas planted in citrus in Gaza declined from 69,200 dunums in 1983 to 43,574 dunums in 1996. Palestinian farmers harnessed new agricultural technologies and their production was competitive with that of Israel. Palestinians embarked on promoting the marketing of their produce in Europe and other countries. In rain-fed farming, Palestinians shifted from field crops to olives. The reasons behind that are:

 

·        Income from field crops is low compared to income-earning opportunities in Israel

 

·        Olives do not require a lot of work

 

·        The planting of olives indicates that the land is cultivated, which protects it from the Israeli appetite to confiscate uncultivated land; planting field crops does not provide evidence that the land is cultivated all year round.

 

As a result of these factors, Palestine has moved away from agricultural food security. Palestine became an exporter of vegetables, olives and citrus and an importer of field crops and limited types of fruits and vegetables, which are produced in quantities less than their demand and/or are not available during certain periods of the year. Table 3 shows the balance between production and consumption in Palestine for different branches of crop production, while Table 4 shows the quantities and export-import channels for crop products in Palestine.

 

 

Table 3: The Total Production and Consumption for Major Agricultural Types in Palestine in 1996

 

 

Production 

(1000 tonnes)

Consumption (1000 tonnes)

Surplus or deficit

Vegetables

516.9

645

-128.1

Field crops

35.8

350.3

-314.5

Citrus

153.2

42.2

111.0

Fruits

134.6

154.1

-19.5

Olives

126.1

80.4

45.7

 

 

 

 

Table 4: Total Quantities of Exported and Imported Vegetables and Fruits to Palestine (West Bank and Gaza Strip) in 1996

 

1000 Tonnes

Export to and/or through

 

Total

Imported from Israel

 

 

Jordan

Israel

 

 

Vegetables

---

105.1

105.1

192.7

Fruits

62.7

31.5

94.2*

88.6*

Total

62.7

136.6

199.3

281.3

* Without olives

 

 

Palestinians can reduce the food security gap once they get back the full rights to utilize their land and water resources. Here we explore the potential of agricultural development in Palestine once the issues of land and water are solved according to the terms of reference for the peace process, namely UN resolutions 242 and 338. The potential exists for irrigating an additional 400,000 dunums of land in the Jordan Valley, Tulkarm and Jenin. Another potential lies in building the West Ghour canal, proposed in the Johnston Plan, which once built will alone provide enough water to irrigate at least an additional 150,000 dunums and create job opportunities for 300,000 Palestinian workers.

Optimization models are particularly suitable for exploring the potential for efficient utilization of scarce resources and the impacts of constraints on this potential. In what follows, we present a linear programming model we designed to deal with these issues.

 

 

The Model

 

The basic core of the system (named ASAP, Allocation System for Palestinian Agriculture) is the optimal allocation of scarce land and water. The objective is to maximize total net agricultural profit by choosing the appropriate crops and the corresponding monthly allocation of the available land and water. [Monthly allocations of water which correspond to the pattern of water use for each crop, allow different crop seasons for the same crop, and allow multiple cropping in the same year.] The availability of these resources is not the only constraint. Equally important are the available irrigation technologies, water distribution infrastructure, soil types, the costs of other inputs and the market constraints that define the potential demands for Palestinian crops.

 

The allocation model is a linear programming model. The model specifies an objective function to be maximized and a set of constraints that must be satisfied. The set of constraints includes the land and water constraints, technological constraints and boundary conditions that set upper limits on key variables of the model. Similar models have been used by Lacewell et. al. (1982). The model ignores issues of risk raised in Bryant, Mjelde and Lacewell (1993), as well as optimal choice of irrigation method for each crop, basing monthly irrigation water use per dunum for each crop on actual Palestinian irrigation practice.

 

There is no labour constraint in the model, as Palestine is a labour abundant region. Labour costs are reflected in the objective function. Irrigation requirements are based on actual Palestinian practice. Improvements in irrigation technology or water infrastructure could be incorporated in the model, but these experiments are not reported here. Finally, the model is essentially static, allocating irrigation water and land over 12 months in a single year.

 

We begin with a general discussion of the mathematical equations of the model and the way they are organized within ASAP. Variables are defined and the constraints are specified for each of the separate districts of Palestine. The model at this stage is defined for the West Bank districts only. It is only a simple matter to expand it to include the Gaza Strip. (A complete description of the model can be found in the ASAP documentation: the Technical Reference Manual, the ASAP User’s Guide and the Data Reference Manual.)

 

 

 

 

Variables:

 

The agricultural sector of each region j potentially operates crop activities i’, where each activity produces a single crop i, in a crop season unique to i’, using a particular soil type p, and a particular irrigation system s. The output of each activity Xji’, is measured in tonnes per year. Months are indexed by m (=1,…,12). For exports of water and crops between districts, r is used as the index for the receiving district.

 

Each crop activity, ji’, uses land of soil type p during the crop season. The land used in month m equals

 

           (dunums)

 

where =

 

Some crop activities ji’ also use irrigation water during the crop season. For these activities the irrigation water used in month m equals

 

             (m3)

 

where =

 

Note that differs from month to month to reflect the pattern of water use during the crop season.

 

Crops can be exported to other districts. The export of crop i from district j to district r equals

 

             (tonnes),

 

Crops can also be exported to or imported from abroad. The export of crop i from region j to abroad equals

             (tonnes)

 

and the import of crop i from abroad to region j equals

 

             (tonnes)

 

 

Irrigation water can also be exported to other districts. The export of irrigation water from district j to district r in month m equals

 

             (m3)

 

Irrigation water can also be exported to, or imported from, abroad (The National Water Authority). Exports and imports of irrigation water to/from abroad in month m equal

 

             (m3)

             (m3)

 

 

Objective Function:

 

The model chooses the levels of crop activities in each district, Xji’, exports of crops from one district to another, ECjri (r ¹ j), net exports of crops from each district to abroad, NECFji , exports of water from one district to another, EWjrm (r ¹ j), exports of water to abroad, EWFjm and imports of water from abroad, MWFjm, in order to maximize total profit from agriculture adjusted for the costs of transporting water and crops between districts and between districts and abroad:

 

 

TP =

 

where  is the net profit per unit of output of crop i’ in region j (JD/tonne),

 

Pji’ is the price of crop i’ in region j (JD/tonne),

 

Pjk is the is the price of purchased input k in region j,

 

Cji’k is the requirement for input k per unit of output of crop i’ in region j)

 

cwjr is the cost of transporting one unit of water from region j to region r () (JD/m3)

 

cwjf is the cost of transporting one unit of water from region j to abroad

 

            cwfj is the cost of transporting one unit of water from abroad to region j

            ccjri is the cost of transporting one tonne of crop i from region j to region r

 

and       ccjfi is the cost of exporting or importing one tonne of crop i between region j and abroad

 

 

Constraints:

 

There are seven types of constraints:

 

 

The commodity balances state that consumption needs for commodity i in district j,  must be met, either by production in the district or by imports from other districts and abroad. Any surplus of the commodity can be exported to other districts or abroad.

 

for each (j,i):

 

The land balances state that the use of land in district j of soil type p in month m cannot exceed the available land of that type,

 

for each (j,p,m):

 

The water balances state that the use of irrigation water in district j and month m cannot exceed the water available from sources within the region, from import from other districts or from abroad.

 

for each (j,m):

Note that  equals zero for rain-fed crops.

 

There are two types of water allocation equations. The first allocates the supply of irrigation water originating within the district across months. This constraint implicitly assumes perfect storage capability. It was used because the monthly distribution of the supply of irrigation water originating within the district was not known.

 

for each j:

 

The second water allocation equation allocates the total amount of water available from abroad (the National Water Authority) to the districts and across months.

 

 

The water transport capacity constraints reflect the physical limits imposed by the water transport infrastructure.

 

for each (j,r,m):

for each (j, m):

for each (j, m):

 

The commodity export constraints reflect access to world markets and the ability of these markets to absorb Palestinian exports.

 

For each (i):

 

The commodity import constraints reflect the ability to import.

 

For each (i):

 

 

Data Selection and Structure

 

The fact that ASAP is designed to serve as an integrated model for the optimization of use of land and water resources in agriculture necessitates that this model be based on a wide spectrum of relevant data. This data combines factors such as crop types, climate, crop production and distribution, consumption, cultivation method, irrigation technology, agricultural markets, prices of produce, cost of production, net export/import, water availability, population growth and distribution, availability of land, soil type, and others.

 

The ability of this system to integrate and analyze these multiple sets of data generated a useful model for Palestine that is capable of exploring policies and projections regarding critical issues in the field of agriculture and related uses of water and land. It is also capable of simulating scenarios to predict the consequences of certain agricultural and development policies on agricultural revenues, food security, land and water. It also allows the introduction of sets of limitations on the agricultural system in Palestine such as curfews, closure of communities, and closure of international terminals. The data structure is described below.

 

 

Data Description and Limitations

 

Figure 2 shows the sets of data included in the model.

 

Crops

 

Data on 49 major crops in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were used in the model. These crops represent the majority of agricultural produce and the various crop types of vegetables, field crops and fruit trees (Table 5).  This set of data comprises the primary data of ASAP to which all other data were related.

 

 

 

Table 5: Field Crops and Fruit Trees

 

Vegetables

Field Crops

Fruit Trees

Broad beans

Parsley

Wheat

Almond

Cabbage

Peas

Barley

Apple

Carrot

Pepper

 

Apricot

Cauliflower

Potatoes

 

Avocado

Corn (sweet)

Pumpkins

 

Banana

Cowpeas

Radish

 

Citrus

Cucumber

Snake cucumber

 

Date Palm

Eggplant

Spinach

 

Figs

Garlic

Squash

 

Guava

Jews Mellow

Sugar Beet

 

Loquat

Lettuce

Thyme

 

Nuts

Musk Melon

Tomatoes

 

Olives

Okra

Turnip

 

Peach

Onion

Water melon

 

Pear

Beans

 

 

Plum

 

 

 

Pomegranates

 

 

 

Quince

 

 

 

Vines

 

 

 


Figure 2: Data Structure for ASAP

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Data gathered on each crop include:

1- Cultivated Areas

The measurement unit of the data item is the dunum (1 dunum = 0.1 hectare). Information on crop areas was taken from statistical data compiled by various directorates of the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture (PMA). The data was classified by district, cultivation season, soil type, and cultivation method. For irrigated vegetables and field crops, the planting date was the identifier of the cropping season. For fruit trees, as most are perennials, harvesting time was the identifier of the cropping season. The following tables show the classification scheme of the irrigated crops by seasons; that is for each crop and irrigation method, they show the planting and harvesting months. For convenience, the crop activities have been allocated to seasons.

 

Table 6: Classification Scheme for Crops by Season
For All Districts Except Jericho

 

 Crop type

Fall

Spring

Summer

Beans

 

12-6 (P)

3-7 (O)

Broad beans

10-2 (O)

 

 

Carrot

11-5 (O)

 

 

Cauliflower

10-2 (O)

12-4 (O)

3-6 (O)

Cowpeas

 

1-6 (T)

3-7 (O)

Cucumber

11-6 (P)

 

3-8 (O)

Eggplant

10-6(O)

1-6 (T)

1-7 (P)

3-8 (O)

Jews Mellow

8-11 (O)

12-4 (P)

4-8 (O)

Lettuce

 

12-2 (O)

 

Musk Melon

 

 

3-7 (O)

Okra

 

 

3-7 (O)

Onion

9-4 (O)

12-4 (O) / 2-6 (O)

 

Pepper

8-6 (P)

12-6 (P)

3-7(O)

Potatoes

8-2 (O)

12-4 (O) / 2-6 (O)

 

Pumpkins

 

 

5-11 (O)

Radish

11-2 (O)

 

 

Spinach

8-12 (O)

1-4 (O)

 

Squash

10-3 (O)

 

3-7 (O)

Sugar Beets

9-12 (O)

 

 

Thyme

 

2

 

Tomatoes

9-6 (P)

1-6 (T) / 2-6 (O)

3-7 (O)

Turnip

11-2 (O)

 

 

Water Melon

 

 

3-7 (O)

O = Open Field Irrigated                     T = Tunnels (Low and High)              P = Plastic houses

Season Months Fall 9, 10, 11 Spring 12, 1, 2 Summer 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8


Table 7: Classification Scheme for Crops by Season
For Jericho

 

Crop type

Fall

Spring

Summer

Beans

10-2 (O)

12-5 (O)

 

Broad beans

10-3 (O)

 

 

Cabbage

9-1 (O)

 

 

Carrot

11-5 (O)

 

 

Cauliflower

9-1 (O)

12-4 (O)

 

Corn

8-12 (O)

12-4 (O)

3-6 (O)

Cowpeas

 

2-5 (O)

 

Cucumber

9-1 (O) / 9-6 (P)

 

 

Eggplant

9-6 (O)

 

 

Jews Mellow

 

2-5 (O)

 

Lettuce

11-2 (O)

 

 

Musk Melon

 

 

3-7 (O)

Okra

 

2-6 (O)

 

Onion

9-4 (O)

 

 

Pepper

9-6 (P) / 9-8 (P)

 

 

Potatoes

 

12-5 (O)

 

Pumpkins

 

1-6 (O)

 

Radish

11-2 (O)

 

 

Snake Cucumber

 

2-5 (O)

 

Spinach

8-12 (O)

1-4 (O)

 

Squash

9-12 (O)

12-4 (O)

 

Sugar Beets

9-12 (O)

 

 

Thyme

 

2

 

Tomatoes

9-3 (O) / 11-4 (T) /

9-5 (O)

1-5 (O)

 

Turnip

11-2 (O)

 

 

Water Melon

 

 

3-6 (O)

Wheat

11-5 (O)

 

 

Barley

11-4 (O)

 

 

 O = Open Field Irrigated                    T = Tunnels (Low and High)              P = Plastic houses

Season Months Fall 9, 10, 11 Spring 12, 1, 2 Summer 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

 

 

Rain-fed field crops in Palestine are all planted during the fall. Rain-fed vegetables are mostly planted in the summer period, starting in early March.

2- Crop Yield

Measured in kilograms per dunum, the average yield of each crop was estimated based on field surveys and statistics collected by the various directorates of the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture. Crop yield differences among the various types of cultivation were incorporated in the model. Thus, yield for the same crop is different for plastic houses, rain-fed cultivation, open field irrigated cultivation, and low and high plastic tunnels. Although crop yield tends to vary with soil quality and season variation in the same cultivation type, the quantification of these variations is difficult, and thus they were neglected.

 

3- Crop Prices

These are measured in Jordanian Dinars per kilogram of crop. The average currency exchange were based on 1995 rates and is equal to 1 JD = 4.28 NIS. This information was obtained from various sources, including field survey, statistics compiled by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture. The compiled prices represent the market price of each crop rather than farm-gate prices. Although farm gate prices are better reflectors of farmers’ income and net revenue, this information was not available. Monthly crop prices were included in the model as great variation exists in market prices during the year.

 

4- Crop Water Requirement

These are measured in cubic meters per dunum of crop. The values of crop water requirement were calculated based on real data taken from the field. Cropwat software was used to generate the crop water requirement values for each crop. The values were different for each month in the crop season, soil type, and cultivation method. In calculating water requirements, the following factors were taken into consideration:

·      microclimate - precipitation, solar radiation, evaporation, humidity, and wind speed

·      soil type - clay, clay loam, and sandy loam

·      efficiency of irrigation method

·      crop type - 48 crops

·      Cultivation type - open field irrigated, plastic houses, rain-fed, low and high plastic tunnels

·      growing season and duration

 

5- Cost of Production

Cost of production for each crop, measured in Jordanian Dinars per dunum, was divided into four main categories: chemicals, raw material, labour, and other. The category of chemicals includes fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides. Raw material includes tools, plastic covers, irrigation pipes, and depreciation of plastic houses and irrigation systems. Labour cost was calculated according to work hours per job. Other costs include farming processes (other than labour) such as plowing, harvesting, seed sowing and other relevant operations.

 

The variation in the cost of production of crops planted on different soil types is minimal and thus was neglected.

 

6- Crop Consumption

Measured by tonnes per district, the estimation of crop consumption per district was generated from food basket data provided by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). The total value (in NIS) of money spent by family unit on each crop was divided by the average family size and divided by the average crop price (NIS/tonne) in each district. To obtain the total crop consumption in each district, the generated per capita crop consumption (in tonnes) was multiplied by population size.

 

 

Soil Type Distribution

 

As for the distribution of the prevailing soil types in each district of Palestine, the ASAP team utilized GIS technology available at ARIJ. Information on the size and geographical distribution of current agricultural and reclaimable lands were obtained from the analysis of aerial photos, satellite images, and existing land use maps. Information obtained from these sources were entered into the GIS as individual coordinates (information layers) and overlaid with soil distribution coverage. The soil distribution and classification were obtained from a soil map of 1:250,000 for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

 

 

Results

 

Mathematical programming models are well suited for exploring the limitations on production imposed by economic, political and physical constraints. These models are also useful in estimating the potential benefit to a sector of using additional scarce resources. Three experiments were carried out with the model and were used to estimate the limitations imposed by water and export markets on West Bank agriculture. In order to provide a reference, the first experiment assumed unlimited amounts of irrigation water from the National Water Carrier (NWC) as well as unlimited exports at fixed existing prices. The results are still constrained by cultivable land and existing water transport infrastructure within the West Bank. The second experiment constrains the amount of irrigation water to 92 MCM, the amount of water presently available from local Palestinian sources. (The amount available from NWC was set to zero.) The third experiment assumed unlimited water from NWC but limited crop exports.  Limiting crop exports to existing levels would force the solution to replicate the present pattern of production.  Instead, limits of one million tonnes were placed on the export of each crop.  These limits were significantly less than the exports of over two million tonnes which were reached for two crops in the unconstrained experiment, but still large enough to allow the solution to deviate from the existing pattern of production.

 

The Unconstrained Experiment

 

In the unconstrained experiment, the maximum net agricultural profit amounts to J.D 4.24 billion. In this experiment 405 MCM of water was imported from the NWC. Total agricultural production was 7,765,050 tonnes. Crops were highly specialized with only a few crops being produced.

 

Crop exports totaled 7,691,620 tonnes. The overwhelming proportion of each crop was exported with the exception of figs, which were mainly consumed in the domestic market. Details of crop production and exports are shown in Table 8 below.

 

 

Table 8: Optimal Crop Production and Exports

(Unconstrained Experiment)

 

Crop

PRODUCTION (000, TONNES)

EXPORTS (000, TONNES)

CAULIFLOWER

780

770

CUCUMBER

2,373

2,355

JEWS MELLOW

319

317

OKRA

140

139

PEPPER

1,396

1,395

SPINACH

59

58

TOMATOES

252

223

TURNIP

2,434

2,433

FIGS

13

2

TOTAL

7,765

7,691

 

 

 

Since water imports from the NWC were not constrained, the shadow prices of irrigation water in each district equaled the cost of transporting irrigation water to the district. Shadow prices of the various soil types of land in each district were large, ranging from JD 1,505 per year in Hebron to JD 8,706 per year in Tulkarm. Thus, if irrigation water was abundant, land would be the significant factor limiting agriculture in Palestine.

 

 

The Constrained Water Experiment

 

In the constrained water experiment, the maximized net agricultural profits fell to J.D 3.08 billion, a drop of JD 1.16 billion. In this experiment less cultivable land was used than in the unconstrained experiment because no water was allowed to be imported from the NWC. As a result, total agricultural production fell to almost one half of what it was in the unconstrained experiment (3,804,322 tonnes). Crops were even more highly specialized, with even fewer crops being produced and exported (see Table 9). The dominant crop is turnips, suggesting that this crop uses water most efficiently.

 

Crop exports totaled 3,784,235 tonnes. The overwhelming proportion of each crop was exported with the exception of figs and cucumbers, which were mainly consumed in the domestic market. Details of crop production and exports are shown in Table 9 below.

 

 

Table 9: Optimal Crop Production and Exports

(Constrained Water Experiment)

 

Crop

PRODUCTION (000, TONNES)

EXPORTS (000, TONNES)

CUCUMBER

3

0

MUSK MELON

130

128

OKRA

199

198

PEPPER

783

782

TURNIP

2,674

2,673

FIGS

13

2

TOTAL

3,803

3,784

 

 

 

When water was constrained, the shadow price of water from the NWC rose to J.D 8.57 per cubic meter. The shadow prices of land fell, ranging from J.D 958 per year in Bethlehem to a high of J.D 5,173 per year in Jenin. Thus, although the water constraint reduced the amount of land used in some months in some districts, land was still fully utilized in many months in many districts.

 

The Constrained Market Experiment

 

In the constrained market experiment, the net agricultural profits were JD 0.96 billion lower than in the unconstrained experiment, but somewhat higher than in the constrained water experiment, at J.D 3.28 billion. In this experiment all cultivable land was used during the crop seasons and over 384 MCM of water was imported from the NWC. Total agricultural production (7,142,888 tonnes) was slightly lower than in the unconstrained experiment, but considerably higher than in the constrained water experiment. This suggests that the water constraint is a far more binding constraint than the market constraints on commodity exports. Again, crops were more highly specialized and with fewer crops being produced and exported (see Table 10) than in the unconstrained experiment.

 

Crop exports totaled 7,063 tonnes. The overwhelming proportion of each crop was exported with the exception of figs and tomatoes, which were mainly consumed in the domestic market. Details of crop production and exports are shown in Table 10.

 

When commodity exports were constrained and irrigation water unconstrained, the shadow price of water from the NWC fell to J.D 0 per cubic meter. Land had shadow prices that ranged from J.D 671 per year in Hebron to a high of J.D 5,443 per year in Jericho. The market constraint ultimately increased the amount of land used for production, since production of more profitable crops gave way to production of less profitable crops which require more land per tonne of output. The production of the most profitable crops was exactly equal to local consumption plus the export limit imposed (1 million tonnes per crop).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10: Optimal Crop Production and Exports

(Constrained Markets Experiment)

 

Crop

PRODUCTION (000, TONNES)

EXPORTS (000, TONNES)

CABBAGE

1,005

1,000

CAULIFLOWER

780

770

CUCUMBER

1,018

1,000

JEWS MELLOW

993

991

LETTUCE

848

846

OKRA

174

173

PEPPER

1,001

1,000

SPINACH

59

58

TOMATOES

252

223

TURNIP

1,001

1,000

FIGS

13

2

TOTAL

7,143

7,063

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusions

 

 

Both water and export markets place major limits on agriculture in the Palestinian West Bank. When water is made available in abundance and when markets (exports) are not constrained, Palestinian agricultural production expands greatly. A total of 405 MCM of water is needed in addition to what is available now in order to realize the full potential of Palestinian agriculture, based on present irrigation technology, existing water transportation infrastructure, the present amount of available agricultural land, and unlimited export markets. Israeli control over Palestinian water is a major constraint on Palestinian agriculture. This is all the more important in view of the fact that agriculture in Israel contributes less than 2% to its GDP. By way of contrast, agricultural expansion can contribute to a major revitalization of the Palestinian economy through higher exports and income.

 

Restricted export markets also severely limit Palestinian agriculture. The experiments show this in two ways. First, in the constrained water experiment, commodity exports are not limited. Thus, this experiment can also be viewed as an unconstrained exports experiment. The results suggest that even with water limited to present levels, agriculture output could be much greater than present levels if export constraints were lifted. Second, the results of the constrained export experiment suggest that with unlimited water, even modest export constraints significantly reduce agricultural production and income.

 

Together, water and export constraints hold Palestinian agricultural output and profit far below their potential. They force Palestinian agriculture to produce a large array of crops, when both output and profit would be much larger if production were specialized in a smaller set of crops which made more efficient use of available water and land.

 

Although no experiments were conducted in which the land constraint was varied, land was a constraining factor in all three experiments. Greater availability of water and export markets led to a higher implied value (shadow price) of agricultural land. The model as it stands now, is not suited to investigate common access problems to a common aquifer. Thus, this issue was not addressed.

 

The results argue for a much higher value for water than is typically generated by other models. It is only when the contested water is made available to the Palestinians that water shadow prices decline. When no water is made available to the Palestinians from the Israeli National Water Carrier, the shadow price of water or the scarcity rent of water is JD 8.57 (about USD13) per cubic meter. This suggests that the marginal value product of a cubic meter of water in Palestinian agriculture is very high indeed. The Palestinians can productively use any additional water they can claim back from Israel. Peace will be built more firmly on solid economic grounds when the Palestinian economy is anchored on a viable and productive agriculture base. This base requires more water and better access to Israeli and world markets.


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