Impacts of Water and Export Market Restrictions on
Palestinian Agriculture
David
Butterfield*, Jad Isaac**, Atif Kubursi* and Steven Spencer*
* McMaster
University and Econometric Research Limited
** Applied
Research Institute of Jerusalem (ARIJ)
Financial
support from the International Development Research Center (IDRC) is gratefully
acknowledged
Introduction
Agriculture remains a dominant sector of the Palestinian economy. It represents a major component of the economy’s GDP, and employs a large fraction of the population. Furthermore, the agricultural sector is a major earner of foreign exchange and supplies the basic needs of the majority of the local population. In times of difficulty, the agricultural sector has acted as a buffer that absorbs large scores of unemployed people who lost their jobs in Israel or other local sectors of the economy.
Palestinian agriculture is constrained by available land and water, as well as access to markets. These constraints have been the object of political conflict, as Israeli authorities have limited available land, water and markets. It is widely recognized that resolution of these conflicts is essential to the establishment of peace in the region (Dinar and Wolf 1994a; Dinar and Wolf 1994b; Berck and Lipow 1994; Wolf 1993; Wolf and Ross 1992; and Yaron 1994). Since Palestinian agriculture is a major potential user of land and water, it is important to establish its needs for these resources. Typically, models for the allocation of water in the region have used a simple derived demand function for water, in which the elasticity of demand is the key parameter (Bogess, Lacewell and Zilberman 1993 and Bryant, Mjelde and Lacewell 1993). In this paper, a detailed linear programming model is used to explore the limitations imposed by these constraints and to spell out the potential for Palestinian agriculture.
Experiments are conducted in which existing constraints on the amount of available irrigation water are relaxed. In addition, other experiments explore the impacts of restrictions on export markets. Although there are no experiments in which the land constraints are relaxed, the shadow prices on these constraints in the experiments provide an indication of their severity.
Constraints on Agricultural Production
The loss of large stretches
of agricultural land, after 1967, due to land confiscation and closures, and
limitations on water supply and product markets, has led to a substantial
decline in the production of this sector.
In 1967, Palestinian agricultural production was
almost identical to Israel's: tomatoes, cucumbers and melons were roughly half
of Israel's crop; plums and grape production were equal to Israel's; and
Palestinian production of olives, dates and almonds was higher. At that time,
the West Bank exported 80% of the entire vegetable crop it produced, and 45% of
total fruit production (Hazboun, S., 1986).
The agricultural sector was hit hard after Israel
occupied the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Thereafter the sector’s contribution to
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Palestinian Occupied Territories declined.
Between 1968/1970 and 1983/1985 the percentage of agricultural contribution to
the overall GDP in the West Bank fell from 37.4-53.5% to 18.5-25.4% (UNCTAD,
1990). The labour force employed in this sector has also declined. Between 1969
and 1985, the agricultural labour force, as a percentage of the total labour
force, fell from 46 to 27.4% (Kahan, D., 1987).
There has been a continuous decline in the
Palestinian cultivated areas in the West Bank since 1967. In 1965, before the
Israeli occupation, the actual cultivated area was estimated at 2,435 km2
(Al-'Aloul, K., 1987). The total area fell to 1,951 km2 in 1980. In
1985, the cultivated area reached 1,735 km2, and in 1989, it was
1,706 km2 (UNCTAD, 1990). The average of actual cultivated land in
the West Bank, between 1980 and 1994 was 1,707 km2, a reduction by
30% of the area cultivated in 1965.
Marketing of farm products and their distribution to
local and external markets is one of the major obstacles facing Palestinian
farmers. Throughout the occupation years, selling Palestinian agricultural
products within Israel requires special permits to be issued by the Israeli
authorities. Transporting products from north to south in the West Bank has
become difficult as well, especially after Israel enforced a closure on East
Jerusalem, the main road connecting northern with southern parts of the West
Bank. Movement of agricultural products between the West Bank and Gaza Strip is
also subject to Israeli control.
The Gulf War in 1991 has also severely affected
Palestinian agriculture, since the bulk of exports were previously sent to Arab
Gulf countries. Palestinian exports to the Gulf States had previously accounted
for approximately $25.4 million per year. As a result of the war, Palestinian
exports fell by 14%.
Israel has
restricted Palestinian water usage and exploited Palestinian water resources
after occupation. Presently, more than 85% of the Palestinian water from the
West Bank aquifers is taken by Israel, accounting for 25.3% of Israel’s water
needs. Palestinians are also denied their right to utilize water resources from
the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers, to which both Israel and Palestine are
riparians. West Bank farmers historically used the waters of the Jordan River
to irrigate their fields, but this source has become quite polluted as Israel
is diverting saline water flows from around Lake Tiberias into the lower
Jordan. Moreover, Israeli diversions from Lake Tiberias into the National Water
Carrier have reduced the flow considerably, leaving Palestinians downstream
with little water of low quality.
In Gaza, the coastal aquifer serves as its main
water resource. Other Gazan water sources, such as runoff from the Hebron
hills, have been diverted for Israeli purposes. The Gaza strip, which housed
only 50,000 people before 1948 is now one of the most densely populated regions
in the world. This is the result of the high levels of forced immigration
following the 1948 and 1967 conflicts, and the high rate of natural population
increase. Gaza’s coastal aquifer is now suffering from severe saltwater
intrusion.
With regard to total water consumption, an Israeli
uses 1959 cubic meters per year (CM/year), compared to an average Palestinian
use of 238 CM/year.
Israeli restrictions have drastically limited the irrigation of Palestinian land so that today only 6% of the West Bank land cultivated by Palestinians is under irrigation, the same proportion as in 1967. By contrast, about 70% of the area cultivated by Jewish settlers is irrigated.
Agricultural Production
Presently, Palestine is divided into two geographic
areas: the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. Agriculture
is the largest sector of the Palestinian economy, generating over 22% of the
Gross Domestic Product of the West Bank and Gaza and providing employment to
over 15% of the population.
The Palestinian agricultural sector shares the
combined characteristics of both intensive irrigated farming primarily in the
Gaza Strip, the Jordan Valley and the Northern districts of the West Bank, as
well as the extensive rain-fed farming which is dominant in the West Bank
highlands. Despite the small size of the West Bank and Gaza, these areas enjoy a
diversity of climatic regions, which makes it possible to grow almost anything,
all year round.
Agriculture in Palestine is
divided into rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (Figure 1). Rain-fed
cultivation forms the largest cultivated area, using 92.7-95.8% of the total
cultivated land. Annual production is generally affected by the dominant
climatic conditions, reflecting substantial variation between the various
years.
Cultivation of fruit trees
is the major sector of plant production in Palestine. Nearly 97.3% of the fruit
trees are cultivated under rain-fed conditions, while the remaining 2.7% are
irrigated. Although irrigated fruit trees occupy limited areas, they contribute
approximately 37% to the total fruit tree production (Agricultural Department
of the West Bank, 1993-1994).
Olive trees, grapevines,
almonds, figs and citrus are the major types of fruit trees planted in
Palestine. They occupy 90% of the total fruit tree area and produce 79% of
total fruit production. Olive trees are the prominent fruit trees throughout
Palestine, covering about 72% of areas devoted to fruit trees and contributing
about 30% of the total fruit
production. Irrigated olive orchards are mainly located in the Jordan Valley
and Tulkarm district. The area of unproductive olive orchards measures 4,272
hectares and makes up approximately 4% of the total fruit tree area.
Grapevines are the second
major fruit crops in the West Bank, with a total area of approximately 7,600
hectares and annual production of 43,000 tonnes in 1994. Approximately 68% of
the total cultivated area of vineyards is found in the Hebron district. Almond
trees occupy the third largest area among cultivated fruit trees, forming 7.1%
of the fruit tree area and contributing 2.4% to the fruit production.
Figure 1: Total Cultivated Area
and Production of Different Cropping Patterns
in the West Bank for the
1994 Growing Season
The area of field crops and
forages has significantly decreased from 85,000 hectares in 1966 to
approximately 46,000 hectares in 1994. This decline reflects the major
reduction of field crops in the West Bank.
The total area of field
crops varies from one year to another. During the last fifteen years, the
largest area of field crops was in 1990, with 56,492 hectares, while the
smallest was in 1984, with 43,881 hectares. This indicates that there is a
potential for at least additional 12,611.5 hectares of field crops that could
be planted to produce approximately 17 thousand tonnes of different types of
field crops (Rural Research Center, 1980-1990; Haddadin, 1993).
The total cultivated area
under field crops was estimated at 46,106.1 hectares in 1994. The majority of
this area (approximately 98.4%) was cultivated under rain-fed conditions while
only 1.6% was irrigated. Total field crop production was 48,662.5 tonnes for
the same year, of which irrigated field crops contributed 10.1%, (Agricultural Department of the West Bank,
1993-1994).
The potential for field crop
development in the West Bank is greatly limited by productivity, size of
cultivated areas and agro-climatologic factors. The distribution of rainfall,
prevailing temperatures, and the occurrence of Khamaseen winds are the main factors influencing the distribution
of field crops and annual productivity. These factors also influence farmers’
decisions on the type of crop and time of planting.
In the 1994-growing season,
the total area of vegetable crops was approximately 16,000 hectares with a
total production of 212,000 tonnes. The production of vegetable crops is higher
than that of fruit trees or field crops. Also, the areas of rain-fed vegetables
are characterized by fertile soils and good average rainfall (Agricultural
Departments in the West Bank, 1993-1994).
More than 30 different
vegetable crops are planted in Palestine. This richness in crop diversity
combined with the variety of possible panting dates greatly improves the
production of this sector.
Irrigated vegetables make
about 42% of the vegetable area. Different irrigation systems used in the
cultivation of vegetables in Palestine, namely open irrigated fields,
irrigation under low plastic tunnels, under high plastic tunnels, and under
plastic houses.
Although rain-fed vegetables
account for the largest area of the total planted vegetables (approximately
59%), they contribute only 19% to total vegetable production. The largest area
of rain-fed vegetables is found in Jenin district, followed by Tulkarm, Hebron,
Ramallah, Nablus, and Bethlehem.
Around 20 different
vegetable crops are planted under rain-fed conditions in the West Bank. The
most widespread are dry onions, tomatoes, okra, snake cucumber, squash,
cauliflower, and potatoes. Productivity of rain-fed vegetables varies from year
to year, depending on many conditions. The main factors controlling
productivity and the length of the farming season are rainfall and the quantity
of last effective rainfall, soil moisture content, soil preparation, and
temperature; especially during the emergence, flowering, and fruit setting
stages of plant growth.
The current total area of irrigated land in the West
Bank is 101,615 dunums and the total amount of water used for irrigation is
92.94 Million Cubic Meters (MCM). Table 1 shows the total area and production
for different major plant types in the West Bank in the year 1996.
Table 1: Total Area and Production for Different Major Types Planted in the West Bank in 1996
Type |
Area (1000 dunums) |
Production (1000 tonnes) |
Field crops |
375.048 |
49.719 |
Forage crops |
66.369 |
18.056 |
Vegetable crops |
145.457 |
256.405 |
Citrus |
18.836 |
55.977 |
Unproductive Olive trees |
22.545 |
------- |
Productive Olives |
785.428 |
123.661 |
Other fruit trees |
214.280 |
107.046 |
Total |
1,627.963 |
610.864 |
Almost 92.7% of the total irrigated areas in the
West Bank are concentrated in the two agro-ecological areas, the semi-coastal
region and the Jordan Valley. Vegetables constitute 67% of the total irrigated
areas in the West Bank. About 65.3% of the vegetables are grown under open
fields, 15.8% under low plastic tunnels, 7.5% under high plastic tunnels and
11.4% under plastic houses. Fruit trees form about 26.5% of the total irrigated
lands in the West Bank, while field crops constitute 6.5%.
Agriculture in the South of the West Bank (Bethlehem
and Hebron) is mainly rain-fed. There are 375,726 dunums of agricultural land,
of which only 1807 dunums are irrigated. Hence, its contribution to the total
irrigated agriculture in the West Bank is 1.8%. As for agricultural water use,
the South consumes 0.54 MCM for irrigation, which is 0.6% of the West Bank
total.
The North of the West Bank (Ramallah, Jenin, Tulkarm
and part of Nablus) is quite varied in the types of crops produced. It has good
fertile soil, suitable climate, fair amounts of irrigation water and relatively
high annual rainfall. All of these factors contributed to prosperous rain-fed
farming and irrigated agriculture in the North. There are 1,262,637 dunums of
agricultural land, of which 56,088 dunums is irrigated farmland. This makes the
North’s contribution to the total irrigated agriculture in the West Bank 55.2%.
Similarly, the North uses 36.83 MCM for irrigation, which is 39.6% of the total
West Bank irrigation water.
The Jordan Valley, including Jericho and part of
Nablus, has very hot weather and virtually no rain. As a result, there is no
rain-fed agriculture in the Jordan Valley and all the farming is based on
irrigated cultivation. Thus, all of the 43,700 dunums of agricultural land is
irrigated. The Jordan Valley’s contribution to the total irrigated agriculture
in the West Bank is 43%. As for agricultural water, 55.57 MCM are used on
irrigation, which makes up 59.8% of the total irrigation water in the West
Bank.
In the Gaza Strip, the exploitation level of
resources exceeds the carrying capacity of the environment. This is especially
true for the water and land resources. Agricultural expansion in the Gaza Strip
seems to have reached its limits. Almost all cultivated land is now under
exploitation. Due to economic pressure the last remaining spots of dunes are
rapidly being leveled and excavated in order to start intensive horticulture.
This process is further accelerated by the loss of agricultural land in sand
dune areas to urban expansion. There are 178,186 dunums of agricultural land,
representing close to 50% of the total area of the Gaza Strip. Of the total,
109,146 dunums are irrigated and 69,040 dunums are rain-fed. Thus irrigated
farming makes up 61% of the total agricultural area in the Gaza Strip. Table 2 shows the total area and production
for different plant types in the Gaza Strip in the year 1996.
Table 2: Total Area and Production for Different Planted Crops in the Gaza Strip in 1996
Type |
Area (1000 dunums) |
Production (1000 tonnes) |
Vegetable crops |
62.217 |
260.513 |
Citrus |
43.574 |
97.192 |
Other fruit trees |
40.450 |
27.530 |
Field crops and Forage |
33.700 |
6.500 |
Total |
179.941 |
385.2 |
During the period 1967 through 1995, due to the
absence of a national government in Palestine, a mix of economic and political
considerations shaped Palestinian agricultural practices. In irrigated
agriculture, economic issues forced Palestinians to shift from fruit trees to
high cash value crops such as vegetables, and more recently flowers. For
instance, the areas planted in citrus in Gaza declined from 69,200 dunums in
1983 to 43,574 dunums in 1996. Palestinian farmers harnessed new agricultural
technologies and their production was competitive with that of Israel.
Palestinians embarked on promoting the marketing of their produce in Europe and
other countries. In rain-fed farming, Palestinians shifted from field crops to
olives. The reasons behind that are:
·
Income
from field crops is low compared to income-earning opportunities in Israel
·
Olives
do not require a lot of work
·
The
planting of olives indicates that the land is cultivated, which protects it
from the Israeli appetite to confiscate uncultivated land; planting field crops
does not provide evidence that the land is cultivated all year round.
As a result of these factors, Palestine has moved
away from agricultural food security. Palestine became an exporter of
vegetables, olives and citrus and an importer of field crops and limited types
of fruits and vegetables, which are produced in quantities less than their
demand and/or are not available during certain periods of the year. Table 3
shows the balance between production and consumption in Palestine for different
branches of crop production, while Table 4 shows the quantities and
export-import channels for crop products in Palestine.
Table 3: The Total Production and Consumption for Major Agricultural Types in Palestine in 1996
|
Production (1000 tonnes) |
Consumption (1000 tonnes) |
Surplus or deficit |
Vegetables |
516.9 |
645 |
-128.1 |
Field crops |
35.8 |
350.3 |
-314.5 |
Citrus |
153.2 |
42.2 |
111.0 |
Fruits |
134.6 |
154.1 |
-19.5 |
Olives |
126.1 |
80.4 |
45.7 |
Table 4: Total Quantities of Exported and Imported Vegetables and Fruits to Palestine (West Bank and Gaza Strip) in 1996
1000 Tonnes |
Export to and/or through |
|
Total |
Imported from Israel |
|
|
|
Jordan |
Israel |
|
|
||
Vegetables |
--- |
105.1 |
105.1 |
192.7 |
||
Fruits |
62.7 |
31.5 |
94.2* |
88.6* |
||
Total |
62.7 |
136.6 |
199.3 |
281.3 |
||
* Without olives
Palestinians can reduce the food security gap once they get back the full rights to utilize their land and water resources. Here we explore the potential of agricultural development in Palestine once the issues of land and water are solved according to the terms of reference for the peace process, namely UN resolutions 242 and 338. The potential exists for irrigating an additional 400,000 dunums of land in the Jordan Valley, Tulkarm and Jenin. Another potential lies in building the West Ghour canal, proposed in the Johnston Plan, which once built will alone provide enough water to irrigate at least an additional 150,000 dunums and create job opportunities for 300,000 Palestinian workers.
Optimization models are particularly suitable for
exploring the potential for efficient utilization of scarce resources and the
impacts of constraints on this potential. In what follows, we present a linear
programming model we designed to deal with these issues.
The Model
The basic core of the system (named ASAP, Allocation System for Palestinian Agriculture) is the optimal allocation of scarce land and water. The objective is to maximize total net agricultural profit by choosing the appropriate crops and the corresponding monthly allocation of the available land and water. [Monthly allocations of water which correspond to the pattern of water use for each crop, allow different crop seasons for the same crop, and allow multiple cropping in the same year.] The availability of these resources is not the only constraint. Equally important are the available irrigation technologies, water distribution infrastructure, soil types, the costs of other inputs and the market constraints that define the potential demands for Palestinian crops.
The allocation model is a linear programming model. The model specifies an objective function to be maximized and a set of constraints that must be satisfied. The set of constraints includes the land and water constraints, technological constraints and boundary conditions that set upper limits on key variables of the model. Similar models have been used by Lacewell et. al. (1982). The model ignores issues of risk raised in Bryant, Mjelde and Lacewell (1993), as well as optimal choice of irrigation method for each crop, basing monthly irrigation water use per dunum for each crop on actual Palestinian irrigation practice.
There is no labour constraint in the model, as Palestine is a labour abundant region. Labour costs are reflected in the objective function. Irrigation requirements are based on actual Palestinian practice. Improvements in irrigation technology or water infrastructure could be incorporated in the model, but these experiments are not reported here. Finally, the model is essentially static, allocating irrigation water and land over 12 months in a single year.
We begin with a general discussion of the mathematical equations of the model and the way they are organized within ASAP. Variables are defined and the constraints are specified for each of the separate districts of Palestine. The model at this stage is defined for the West Bank districts only. It is only a simple matter to expand it to include the Gaza Strip. (A complete description of the model can be found in the ASAP documentation: the Technical Reference Manual, the ASAP User’s Guide and the Data Reference Manual.)
Variables:
The agricultural sector of each region j
potentially operates crop activities i’, where each activity produces a single
crop i, in a crop season unique to i’, using a particular soil type p, and a
particular irrigation system s. The output of each activity Xji’, is
measured in tonnes per year. Months are indexed by m (=1,…,12). For exports of
water and crops between districts, r is used as the index for the receiving
district.
Each crop activity, ji’, uses land of soil
type p during the crop season. The land used in month m equals
(dunums)
where =
Some crop activities ji’ also use irrigation
water during the crop season. For these activities the irrigation water used in
month m equals
(m3)
where =
Note that differs from month to month to reflect the pattern of water
use during the crop season.
Crops can be exported to other districts. The
export of crop i from district j to district r equals
(tonnes),
Crops can also be exported to or imported
from abroad. The export of crop i from region j to abroad equals
(tonnes)
and the import of crop i from abroad to
region j equals
(tonnes)
Irrigation water can also be exported to
other districts. The export of irrigation water from district j to district r
in month m equals
(m3)
Irrigation water can also be exported to, or
imported from, abroad (The National Water Authority). Exports and imports of
irrigation water to/from abroad in month m equal
(m3)
(m3)
Objective Function:
The model chooses the levels of crop
activities in each district, Xji’, exports of crops from one
district to another, ECjri (r ¹ j), net exports of crops
from each district to abroad, NECFji , exports of water from one
district to another, EWjrm (r ¹ j), exports of water to
abroad, EWFjm and imports of water from abroad, MWFjm, in
order to maximize total profit from agriculture adjusted for the costs of
transporting water and crops between districts and between districts and
abroad:
TP =
where
is the net profit per
unit of output of crop i’ in region j (JD/tonne),
Pji’ is the price
of crop i’ in region j (JD/tonne),
Pjk is the is the
price of purchased input k in region j,
Cji’k is the
requirement for input k per unit of output of crop i’ in region j)
cwjr is the cost
of transporting one unit of water from region j to region r () (JD/m3)
cwjf is the cost
of transporting one unit of water from region j to abroad
cwfj
is the cost of transporting one unit of water from abroad to region j
ccjri
is the cost of transporting one tonne of crop i from region j to region r
and ccjfi is the cost of exporting
or importing one tonne of crop i between region j and abroad
Constraints:
There are seven types of constraints:
The commodity balances state that consumption
needs for commodity i in district j, must be met, either
by production in the district or by imports from other districts and abroad.
Any surplus of the commodity can be exported to other districts or abroad.
for each (j,i):
The land balances state that the use of land
in district j of soil type p in month m cannot exceed the available land of
that type,
for each (j,p,m):
The water balances state that the use of
irrigation water in district j and month m cannot exceed the water available
from sources within the region, from import from other districts or from
abroad.
for each (j,m):
Note that equals zero for
rain-fed crops.
There are two types of water allocation
equations. The first allocates the supply of irrigation water originating within
the district across months. This constraint implicitly assumes perfect storage
capability. It was used because the monthly distribution of the supply of
irrigation water originating within the district was not known.
for each j:
The second water allocation equation
allocates the total amount of water available from abroad (the National Water
Authority) to the districts and across months.
The water transport capacity constraints
reflect the physical limits imposed by the water transport infrastructure.
for each (j,r,m):
for each (j, m):
for each (j, m):
The commodity export constraints reflect
access to world markets and the ability of these markets to absorb Palestinian
exports.
For each (i):
The commodity import constraints reflect the
ability to import.
For each (i):
Data Selection and Structure
The fact that ASAP is designed to serve as an integrated
model for the optimization of use of land and water resources in agriculture
necessitates that this model be based on a wide spectrum of relevant data. This
data combines factors such as crop types, climate, crop production and
distribution, consumption, cultivation method, irrigation technology,
agricultural markets, prices of produce, cost of production, net export/import,
water availability, population growth and distribution, availability of land,
soil type, and others.
The ability of this system to integrate and analyze
these multiple sets of data generated a useful model for Palestine that is
capable of exploring policies and projections regarding critical issues in the
field of agriculture and related uses of water and land. It is also capable of
simulating scenarios to predict the consequences of certain agricultural and
development policies on agricultural revenues, food security, land and water.
It also allows the introduction of sets of limitations on the agricultural
system in Palestine such as curfews, closure of communities, and closure of
international terminals. The data structure is described below.
Data Description and
Limitations
Figure 2 shows the sets of data included in the
model.
Data on 49 major crops in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip were used in the model. These crops represent the majority of
agricultural produce and the various crop types of vegetables, field crops and
fruit trees (Table 5). This set of data
comprises the primary data of ASAP to which all other data were related.
Vegetables |
Field Crops |
Fruit Trees |
|
Broad beans |
Parsley |
Wheat |
Almond |
Cabbage |
Peas |
Barley |
Apple |
Carrot |
Pepper |
|
Apricot |
Cauliflower |
Potatoes |
|
Avocado |
Corn (sweet) |
Pumpkins |
|
Banana |
Cowpeas |
Radish |
|
Citrus |
Cucumber |
Snake cucumber |
|
Date Palm |
Eggplant |
Spinach |
|
Figs |
Garlic |
Squash |
|
Guava |
Jews Mellow |
Sugar Beet |
|
Loquat |
Lettuce |
Thyme |
|
Nuts |
Musk Melon |
Tomatoes |
|
Olives |
Okra |
Turnip |
|
Peach |
Onion |
Water melon |
|
Pear |
Beans |
|
|
Plum |
|
|
|
Pomegranates |
|
|
|
Quince |
|
|
|
Vines |
Figure 2:
Data Structure for ASAP
Data gathered on each crop include:
The measurement unit of the data item is the dunum
(1 dunum = 0.1 hectare). Information on crop areas was taken from statistical
data compiled by various directorates of the Palestinian Ministry of
Agriculture (PMA). The data was classified by district, cultivation season,
soil type, and cultivation method. For irrigated vegetables and field crops,
the planting date was the identifier of the cropping season. For fruit trees,
as most are perennials, harvesting time was the identifier of the cropping
season. The following tables show the classification scheme of the irrigated
crops by seasons; that is for each crop and irrigation method, they show the planting
and harvesting months. For convenience, the crop activities have been allocated
to seasons.
Crop type |
Fall |
Spring |
Summer |
Beans |
|
12-6 (P) |
3-7 (O) |
Broad beans |
10-2 (O) |
|
|
Carrot |
11-5 (O) |
|
|
Cauliflower |
10-2 (O) |
12-4 (O) |
3-6 (O) |
Cowpeas |
|
1-6 (T) |
3-7 (O) |
Cucumber |
11-6 (P) |
|
3-8 (O) |
Eggplant |
10-6(O) |
1-6 (T) 1-7 (P) |
3-8 (O) |
Jews Mellow |
8-11 (O) |
12-4 (P) |
4-8 (O) |
Lettuce |
|
12-2 (O) |
|
Musk Melon |
|
|
3-7 (O) |
Okra |
|
|
3-7 (O) |
Onion |
9-4 (O) |
12-4 (O) / 2-6 (O) |
|
Pepper |
8-6 (P) |
12-6 (P) |
3-7(O) |
Potatoes |
8-2 (O) |
12-4 (O) / 2-6 (O) |
|
Pumpkins |
|
|
5-11 (O) |
Radish |
11-2 (O) |
|
|
Spinach |
8-12 (O) |
1-4 (O) |
|
Squash |
10-3 (O) |
|
3-7 (O) |
Sugar Beets |
9-12 (O) |
|
|
Thyme |
|
2 |
|
Tomatoes |
9-6 (P) |
1-6 (T) / 2-6 (O) |
3-7 (O) |
Turnip |
11-2 (O) |
|
|
Water Melon |
|
|
3-7 (O) |
O = Open Field Irrigated T = Tunnels (Low and High) P = Plastic houses
Season Months Fall 9, 10, 11 Spring 12, 1, 2 Summer 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Crop type |
Fall |
Spring |
Summer |
Beans |
10-2 (O) |
12-5 (O) |
|
Broad beans |
10-3 (O) |
|
|
Cabbage |
9-1 (O) |
|
|
Carrot |
11-5 (O) |
|
|
Cauliflower |
9-1 (O) |
12-4 (O) |
|
Corn |
8-12 (O) |
12-4 (O) |
3-6 (O) |
Cowpeas |
|
2-5 (O) |
|
Cucumber |
9-1 (O) / 9-6 (P) |
|
|
Eggplant |
9-6 (O) |
|
|
Jews Mellow |
|
2-5 (O) |
|
Lettuce |
11-2 (O) |
|
|
Musk Melon |
|
|
3-7 (O) |
Okra |
|
2-6 (O) |
|
Onion |
9-4 (O) |
|
|
Pepper |
9-6 (P) / 9-8 (P) |
|
|
Potatoes |
|
12-5 (O) |
|
Pumpkins |
|
1-6 (O) |
|
Radish |
11-2 (O) |
|
|
Snake Cucumber |
|
2-5 (O) |
|
Spinach |
8-12 (O) |
1-4 (O) |
|
Squash |
9-12 (O) |
12-4 (O) |
|
Sugar Beets |
9-12 (O) |
|
|
Thyme |
|
2 |
|
Tomatoes |
9-3 (O) / 11-4 (T) / 9-5 (O) |
1-5 (O) |
|
Turnip |
11-2 (O) |
|
|
Water Melon |
|
|
3-6 (O) |
Wheat |
11-5 (O) |
|
|
Barley |
11-4 (O) |
|
|
O = Open Field Irrigated T = Tunnels (Low and High) P = Plastic houses
Season Months Fall 9, 10, 11 Spring 12, 1, 2 Summer 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Rain-fed field crops in Palestine are all planted
during the fall. Rain-fed vegetables are mostly planted in the summer period,
starting in early March.
Measured in kilograms per dunum, the average yield
of each crop was estimated based on field surveys and statistics collected by
the various directorates of the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture. Crop yield
differences among the various types of cultivation were incorporated in the
model. Thus, yield for the same crop is different for plastic houses, rain-fed
cultivation, open field irrigated cultivation, and low and high plastic
tunnels. Although crop yield tends to vary with soil quality and season
variation in the same cultivation type, the quantification of these variations
is difficult, and thus they were neglected.
These are measured in Jordanian Dinars per kilogram
of crop. The average currency exchange were based on 1995 rates and is equal to
1 JD = 4.28 NIS. This information was obtained from various sources, including
field survey, statistics compiled by the Palestinian Central Bureau of
Statistics and the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture. The compiled prices
represent the market price of each crop rather than farm-gate prices. Although
farm gate prices are better reflectors of farmers’ income and net revenue, this
information was not available. Monthly crop prices were included in the model
as great variation exists in market prices during the year.
These are measured in cubic meters per dunum of
crop. The values of crop water requirement were calculated based on real data
taken from the field. Cropwat software was used to generate the crop water
requirement values for each crop. The values were different for each month in
the crop season, soil type, and cultivation method. In calculating water
requirements, the following factors were taken into consideration:
·
microclimate
- precipitation, solar radiation, evaporation, humidity, and wind speed
·
soil
type - clay, clay loam, and sandy loam
·
efficiency
of irrigation method
·
crop
type - 48 crops
·
Cultivation
type - open field irrigated, plastic houses, rain-fed, low and high plastic
tunnels
·
growing
season and duration
Cost of production for each crop, measured in
Jordanian Dinars per dunum, was divided into four main categories: chemicals,
raw material, labour, and other. The category of chemicals includes
fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides. Raw material includes tools, plastic
covers, irrigation pipes, and depreciation of plastic houses and irrigation
systems. Labour cost was calculated according to work hours per job. Other
costs include farming processes (other than labour) such as plowing,
harvesting, seed sowing and other relevant operations.
The variation in the cost of production of crops
planted on different soil types is minimal and thus was neglected.
Measured by tonnes per district, the estimation of
crop consumption per district was generated from food basket data provided by
the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). The total value (in NIS)
of money spent by family unit on each crop was divided by the average family
size and divided by the average crop price (NIS/tonne) in each district. To
obtain the total crop consumption in each district, the generated per capita
crop consumption (in tonnes) was multiplied by population size.
As for the distribution of the prevailing soil types
in each district of Palestine, the ASAP team utilized GIS technology available
at ARIJ. Information on the size and geographical distribution of current
agricultural and reclaimable lands were obtained from the analysis of aerial photos,
satellite images, and existing land use maps. Information obtained from these
sources were entered into the GIS as individual coordinates (information
layers) and overlaid with soil distribution coverage. The soil distribution and
classification were obtained from a soil map of 1:250,000 for the West Bank and
the Gaza Strip.
Results
Mathematical programming models are well suited for exploring the limitations on production imposed by economic, political and physical constraints. These models are also useful in estimating the potential benefit to a sector of using additional scarce resources. Three experiments were carried out with the model and were used to estimate the limitations imposed by water and export markets on West Bank agriculture. In order to provide a reference, the first experiment assumed unlimited amounts of irrigation water from the National Water Carrier (NWC) as well as unlimited exports at fixed existing prices. The results are still constrained by cultivable land and existing water transport infrastructure within the West Bank. The second experiment constrains the amount of irrigation water to 92 MCM, the amount of water presently available from local Palestinian sources. (The amount available from NWC was set to zero.) The third experiment assumed unlimited water from NWC but limited crop exports. Limiting crop exports to existing levels would force the solution to replicate the present pattern of production. Instead, limits of one million tonnes were placed on the export of each crop. These limits were significantly less than the exports of over two million tonnes which were reached for two crops in the unconstrained experiment, but still large enough to allow the solution to deviate from the existing pattern of production.
The Unconstrained Experiment
In the unconstrained experiment, the maximum net agricultural profit amounts to J.D 4.24 billion. In this experiment 405 MCM of water was imported from the NWC. Total agricultural production was 7,765,050 tonnes. Crops were highly specialized with only a few crops being produced.
Crop exports totaled 7,691,620 tonnes. The overwhelming proportion of each crop was exported with the exception of figs, which were mainly consumed in the domestic market. Details of crop production and exports are shown in Table 8 below.
Table 8:
Optimal Crop Production and Exports
(Unconstrained
Experiment)
Crop |
PRODUCTION (000,
TONNES) |
EXPORTS (000, TONNES) |
CAULIFLOWER |
780 |
770 |
CUCUMBER |
2,373 |
2,355 |
JEWS MELLOW |
319 |
317 |
OKRA |
140 |
139 |
PEPPER |
1,396 |
1,395 |
SPINACH |
59 |
58 |
TOMATOES |
252 |
223 |
TURNIP |
2,434 |
2,433 |
FIGS |
13 |
2 |
TOTAL |
7,765 |
7,691 |
Since water imports from the NWC were not constrained, the shadow prices of irrigation water in each district equaled the cost of transporting irrigation water to the district. Shadow prices of the various soil types of land in each district were large, ranging from JD 1,505 per year in Hebron to JD 8,706 per year in Tulkarm. Thus, if irrigation water was abundant, land would be the significant factor limiting agriculture in Palestine.
The Constrained Water Experiment
In the constrained water experiment, the maximized net agricultural profits fell to J.D 3.08 billion, a drop of JD 1.16 billion. In this experiment less cultivable land was used than in the unconstrained experiment because no water was allowed to be imported from the NWC. As a result, total agricultural production fell to almost one half of what it was in the unconstrained experiment (3,804,322 tonnes). Crops were even more highly specialized, with even fewer crops being produced and exported (see Table 9). The dominant crop is turnips, suggesting that this crop uses water most efficiently.
Crop exports totaled 3,784,235 tonnes. The overwhelming proportion of each crop was exported with the exception of figs and cucumbers, which were mainly consumed in the domestic market. Details of crop production and exports are shown in Table 9 below.
Table 9:
Optimal Crop Production and Exports
(Constrained
Water Experiment)
Crop |
PRODUCTION (000, TONNES) |
EXPORTS (000, TONNES) |
CUCUMBER |
3 |
0 |
MUSK MELON |
130 |
128 |
OKRA |
199 |
198 |
PEPPER |
783 |
782 |
TURNIP |
2,674 |
2,673 |
FIGS |
13 |
2 |
TOTAL |
3,803 |
3,784 |
When water was constrained, the shadow price of water from the NWC rose to J.D 8.57 per cubic meter. The shadow prices of land fell, ranging from J.D 958 per year in Bethlehem to a high of J.D 5,173 per year in Jenin. Thus, although the water constraint reduced the amount of land used in some months in some districts, land was still fully utilized in many months in many districts.
The Constrained Market Experiment
In the constrained market experiment, the net agricultural profits were JD 0.96 billion lower than in the unconstrained experiment, but somewhat higher than in the constrained water experiment, at J.D 3.28 billion. In this experiment all cultivable land was used during the crop seasons and over 384 MCM of water was imported from the NWC. Total agricultural production (7,142,888 tonnes) was slightly lower than in the unconstrained experiment, but considerably higher than in the constrained water experiment. This suggests that the water constraint is a far more binding constraint than the market constraints on commodity exports. Again, crops were more highly specialized and with fewer crops being produced and exported (see Table 10) than in the unconstrained experiment.
Crop exports totaled 7,063 tonnes. The overwhelming proportion of each crop was exported with the exception of figs and tomatoes, which were mainly consumed in the domestic market. Details of crop production and exports are shown in Table 10.
When commodity exports were constrained and irrigation water unconstrained, the shadow price of water from the NWC fell to J.D 0 per cubic meter. Land had shadow prices that ranged from J.D 671 per year in Hebron to a high of J.D 5,443 per year in Jericho. The market constraint ultimately increased the amount of land used for production, since production of more profitable crops gave way to production of less profitable crops which require more land per tonne of output. The production of the most profitable crops was exactly equal to local consumption plus the export limit imposed (1 million tonnes per crop).
Table 10:
Optimal Crop Production and Exports
(Constrained
Markets Experiment)
Crop |
PRODUCTION (000, TONNES) |
EXPORTS (000, TONNES) |
CABBAGE |
1,005 |
1,000 |
CAULIFLOWER |
780 |
770 |
CUCUMBER |
1,018 |
1,000 |
JEWS MELLOW |
993 |
991 |
LETTUCE |
848 |
846 |
OKRA |
174 |
173 |
PEPPER |
1,001 |
1,000 |
SPINACH |
59 |
58 |
TOMATOES |
252 |
223 |
TURNIP |
1,001 |
1,000 |
FIGS |
13 |
2 |
TOTAL |
7,143 |
7,063 |
Conclusions
Both water and export markets place major limits on agriculture in the Palestinian West Bank. When water is made available in abundance and when markets (exports) are not constrained, Palestinian agricultural production expands greatly. A total of 405 MCM of water is needed in addition to what is available now in order to realize the full potential of Palestinian agriculture, based on present irrigation technology, existing water transportation infrastructure, the present amount of available agricultural land, and unlimited export markets. Israeli control over Palestinian water is a major constraint on Palestinian agriculture. This is all the more important in view of the fact that agriculture in Israel contributes less than 2% to its GDP. By way of contrast, agricultural expansion can contribute to a major revitalization of the Palestinian economy through higher exports and income.
Restricted export markets also severely limit Palestinian agriculture. The experiments show this in two ways. First, in the constrained water experiment, commodity exports are not limited. Thus, this experiment can also be viewed as an unconstrained exports experiment. The results suggest that even with water limited to present levels, agriculture output could be much greater than present levels if export constraints were lifted. Second, the results of the constrained export experiment suggest that with unlimited water, even modest export constraints significantly reduce agricultural production and income.
Together, water and export constraints hold Palestinian agricultural output and profit far below their potential. They force Palestinian agriculture to produce a large array of crops, when both output and profit would be much larger if production were specialized in a smaller set of crops which made more efficient use of available water and land.
Although no experiments were conducted in which the land constraint was varied, land was a constraining factor in all three experiments. Greater availability of water and export markets led to a higher implied value (shadow price) of agricultural land. The model as it stands now, is not suited to investigate common access problems to a common aquifer. Thus, this issue was not addressed.
The results argue for a much higher value for water than is typically generated by other models. It is only when the contested water is made available to the Palestinians that water shadow prices decline. When no water is made available to the Palestinians from the Israeli National Water Carrier, the shadow price of water or the scarcity rent of water is JD 8.57 (about USD13) per cubic meter. This suggests that the marginal value product of a cubic meter of water in Palestinian agriculture is very high indeed. The Palestinians can productively use any additional water they can claim back from Israel. Peace will be built more firmly on solid economic grounds when the Palestinian economy is anchored on a viable and productive agriculture base. This base requires more water and better access to Israeli and world markets.
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